Монетаризмът е на колене. Дали е мъртъв? За да разберем ще трябва да почакаме до 2010. Не виждам и какво може да го замени. Нито плановете за кейсианско помпане на икономиката, нито наливане на държавни пари в банките, нито национализацията им са реална алтернатива. Песимизъм. Започвам да мисля, че ако кризата се ограничи в рамките на тази от 1929-1933, всъщност няма да е чак толкова фатално. Тогава поне системата е оцеляла.
Задала се е огромна вълна...
THE AFTERMATH OF FINANCIAL CRISES
Carmen M. Reinhart
Kenneth S. Rogoff
The unemployment rate rises an average of 7 percentage points over the down phase of the cycle, which
lasts on average over four years. Output falls an average of over 9 percent, although the duration of
the downturn is considerably shorter than for unemployment. The real value of government debt tends
to explode, rising an average of 86 percent in the major post–World War II episodes.
The main cause of debt explosions is usually not the widely cited costs of bailing out and recapitalizing the banking
system. The collapse in tax revenues in the wake of deep and prolonged economic contractions is
a critical factor in explaining the large budget deficits and increases in debt that follow the crisis. Our
estimates of the rise in government debt are likely to be conservative, as these do not include increases
in government guarantees, which also expand briskly during these episodes...
The global nature of the crisis will make it far more difficult for many countries to grow their
way out through higher exports, or to smooth the consumption effects through foreign
borrowing. In such circumstances, the recent lull in sovereign defaults is likely to come
to an end.
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